Early Morning Kommentar
Asia midday crude futures: Ice Brent gains

Ice Brent futures rose in early Asian trading after US president Donald Trump spoke about a possible deal with Iran to end the war.

The Ice front-month July Brent contract was at $105.82/bl at 04:00 GMT, up by 80¢/bl from its settlement on 20 May when it ended $6.26/bl lower.

The Nymex front-month July crude contract was at $99.12/bl, higher by 86¢/bl from its settlement on 20 May when it ended $5.89/bl lower.

"We're in final stages of Iran," Trump told reporters on 20 May. "We'll see what happens. Either have a deal or we're going to do some things that are a little bit nasty, but hopefully that won't happen."

Trump switched to talking about a possible deal after days of comments suggesting that a resumption of war was a strong possibility.

The disruptions to energy supplies caused by the US-Israel war with Iran may not fully resolve until the middle of 2027, even if the conflict ends soon, Abu Dhabi state-owned Adnoc's chief executive Sultan al-Jaber has said.

"Even if this conflict ends tomorrow, it will take at least four months to get back to 80pc of pre-conflict flows and full flows will not return before the first or even second quarter of 2027," al-Jaber told an Atlantic Council event. Damage and costs for the UAE's operations are still being assessed, he said.

US forces boarded a small Iranian oil tanker on 20 May that appeared to be attempting to violate the US blockade of Iranian ports, but other larger vessels appear to be successfully evading the blockade.

"American forces released the vessel after searching and directing the ship's crew to alter course," the US Central Command (Centcom) said in a post on X.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned on 20 May that any renewed US or Israeli strikes on the country would lead to a broadening of the war beyond the Mideast Gulf region.

On supply, US crude inventories fell last week by 7.9mn bl as exports remain elevated, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on 20 May. Crude stocks in the week ended 15 May fell to 445mn bl, down from 452.9mn bl in the week earlier. Stocks were higher by 1.9mn bl compared with the same week last year.