Early Morning Kommentar
Asia midday crude futures: Ice Brent retreats

Ice Brent crude futures retreated in early Asian trading, as concerns about a potential trade war between the US and Europe outweighed those on supply disruptions arising from Kazakhstan.

The Ice front-month March Brent contract was $64.15/bl at 04:00 GMT, lower by 77¢/bl from its settlement on 20 January, when the contract ended 98¢/bl higher.

The Nymex front-month March crude contract was at $59.74/bl, lower by 62¢/bl from its settlement on 20 January, when the contract ended $1.02/bl higher.

US president Donald Trump's administration is rushing to prevent a potential trade war with Europe and its negative effects on financial markets.

Trump has threatened to impose a 10pc tariff on US imports from the UK and seven members of the EU from 1 February, unless they agree to his demand for a US takeover of Greenland. The UK appears to rule out retaliatory measures, but EU leaders will meet on 22 January to agree on the bloc's response. The European parliament is preparing to freeze work on implementing laws for the EU-US trade deal agreed to last summer.

US stock and financial markets fell in Tuesday morning sessions. But US treasury secretary Scott Bessent, speaking at the Davos Economic Forum in Switzerland, urged his EU counterparts to refrain from retaliatory measures. He blamed the downtrend in US financial markets on the contagion effect from a sharp fall in Japan's government bond markets on Monday.

Trump is scheduled to arrive in Davos on 21 January to address the forum and hold meetings with EU leaders.

The White House has not released any details on how Trump's tariff threat against select EU members will be carried out and whether energy commodities will continue to be exempted from tariffs. So far there are no executive orders from Trump on implementing tariffs starting 1 February.

Oil prices rose sharply in the previous session because of expected supply disruptions arising from an ongoing outage at Kazakhstan's 9bn bl Tengiz field.

Chevron-led Tengizchevroil said it temporarily suspended production from Tengiz and the neighboring Korolevskoye field in Kazakhstan on 19 January "as a precautionary measure" because of an issue with power distribution systems at its facilities. Fires broke out at two power stations at Tengiz a day earlier, state news agency Kazinform reported, citing state-owned Kazmunaigaz.

Traders expect the disruption to CPC Blend crude exports to last at least another 3–4 days, longer than first anticipated. This could not be confirmed. Operator Tengizchevroil did not respond to requests for comment.

Exports from the CPC terminal near Yuzhnaya Ozereevka in Russia will not halt completely, according to sources with knowledge of operations. Supplies from Kazakhstan's second- and third-largest oil fields — the 400,000 b/d Kashagan and 240,000 b/d Karachaganak fields, which also feed into the CPC system — are proceeding as normal, they said.