Early Morning Kommentar
– Asia midday crude futures: Ice Brent holds steady

Ice Brent crude futures were largely stable in early Asian trading, after rising above $100/bl in the previous session on concerns of an escalation in the US-Iran war.

The Ice front-month December Brent contract was at $102.20/bl at 04:00 GMT, down by 11¢/bl from its settlement on 1 October when it ended $4.28/bl higher.

The Nymex front-month November crude contract was at $92.57/bl, lower by 30¢/bl from its settlement on 1 October when it ended $2.45/bl higher.

Oil prices settled higher on 1 October after reports from US media that the US was sending roughly 9,000 more troops to the Middle East, as the additional military deployment suggested that conflict in the region will be prolonged.

US president Donald Trump's administration said it is sanctioning Iran's rail and automotive sectors to cut off remaining "industrial lifelines" sustaining Tehran, as a US naval blockade restricts the country's ability to export oil.

The sanctions announced on 1 October mark the latest attempt by the administration to economically pressure Iran under an initiative the US launched in August. The rail and automotive sanctions lay the groundwork to "drain the regime's revenue once and for all", US treasury secretary Scott Bessent said.

Crude flows through Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline have recovered to around 5.5mn b/d, according to a source, allowing for a restart of exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu.

At current flow rates, Argus estimates crude available for export at Yanbu is around 4mn-4.5mn b/d. Shipbrokers said exports appear to be resuming.

China's demand for crude oil may ease in the short term, after the commerce ministry (MoC) stopped issuing licences for clean product cargo exports for October.

China's October exports of clean products, excluding deliveries of jet fuel to bonded warehouses, are now likely to be closer to 480,000 b/d, or two-thirds of the initial plan. The exports that will go ahead this month will do so using licences that companies secured from the MoC, but did not use up, in September, a state-owned company official said.