Early Morning Kommentar
– Asia midday crude futures: Ice Brent eases

Ice Brent crude futures fell in early Asian trading as signs of continued crude flows from the Middle East outweighed concerns over recent tanker incidents in the region.

The Ice front-month January Brent contract was at $91.63/bl at 04:00 GMT, down by $1.13/bl from its settlement on 11 November when it ended $1.27/bl higher.

The Nymex front-month December crude contract was at $85.62/bl, lower by 91¢/bl from its settlement on 11 November when it ended 49¢/bl higher.

China's crude imports rose for a fourth straight month in October, supported by stronger arrivals of Saudi crude.

China imported 9.88mn b/d of crude last month, up by around 830,000 b/d from September to the highest level since March, according to preliminary figures from the General Administration of Customs (GAC). Shandong independent refiners are pivoting back into the market for unsanctioned Brazilian and west African crude, compensating for their loss of access to Iranian crude.

Opec has kept its global oil demand growth forecasts unchanged after a series of downgrades this year, while making a further marginal cut to its outlook for Chinese consumption.

In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report, Opec forecasts global demand will grow by 180,000 b/d to 105.72mn b/d in 2026 and by 2.55mn b/d to 108.28mn b/d in 2027, both in line with its October assessment.

Opec's 2026 demand growth projection is a fraction of the 1.4mn b/d it was forecasting before the US-Iran war began. Its outlook continues to assume that this year's weak growth will give way to a sharp rebound in 2027.

Price declines may be limited by continued reports of shipping incidents in the region. UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) on 11 November reported an incident involving a tanker in the strait of Hormuz. The status of the crew, any damage and the potential environmental impact were unknown, UKMTO said. It did not disclose any further details.

UKMTO has reported 12 incidents involving vessels in the Mideast Gulf region since the beginning of November, 10 of which it classified as attacks. Eight of the 12 incidents involved tankers. The latest report is not currently classified as an attack.

In Russia, a drone attack caused a fire at the country's Baltic port of Ust-Luga overnight, Leningrad regional authorities said on 11 November. The impact on port operations and oil exports was not immediately clear.

By Rhalain Reyes