Ice Brent futures posted gains in early Asian trading hours because of market concerns that Middle East supply disruptions could drag on for longer than expected.
The Ice front-month October Brent contract was at $90.02/bl at 04:00 GMT, up by $1.11/bl from its settlement on 11 August when it ended $1.19/bl higher.
The Nymex front-month September crude contract was at $84.31/bl, up by $1.11/bl from its settlement on 11 August when it ended $1.07/bl higher.
Supply disruptions in the Middle East may last through 2027, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on 11 August as it raised its price forecasts.
WTI at Cushing, Oklahoma is expected to average $74/bl across October-December, the agency said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, up from $66/bl in its July forecast. Prices will steadily fall over the coming 15 months to $60.97/bl in the fourth quarter of 2027 as global inventories start to rebuild, but that forecast is still higher than previously projected.
WTI will average $80.88/bl across 2026 and $65.39/bl across 2027, representing increases of about $4.62/bl from the EIA's prior forecast. Global benchmark Brent was also revised. Prices were expected to average $78/bl in the fourth quarter 2026 before sliding to near $65/bl a year later.
Lifting the price outlook are continued disruptions in the Middle East on account of Iran's grip on the strait of Hormuz, which the EIA estimates shut in 5.5mn b/d in July.
The EIA is holding to its view that output will return to near pre-conflict levels "early" next year but expects ongoing supply disruptions of about 600,000 b/d to persist until the end of 2027.
Iran and Oman were this week still working towards an agreement on overseeing ship traffic through the strait of Hormuz, which could include the collection of fees. Tehran has demanded additional concessions from the US for the reopening of the narrow waterway, the date of which remains elusive.
"The strait of Hormuz will not reopen until the US ends the war and blockade, releases Iran's frozen assets, and agrees to a region-wide ceasefire, including in Lebanon and Gaza," secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Mohsen Rezaei said in remarks carried by IRGC-affiliated Tasnim. "Until all conditions are met, the strait will remain closed."
Meanwhile, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on social media platform X that the seven-day average for oil leaving the strait of Hormuz is currently up to almost 9mn b/d "thanks to the co-ordinated efforts of the US military and our Gulf allies".
Ice Brent futures posted gains in early Asian trading hours because of market concerns that Middle East supply disruptions could drag on for longer than expected.
The Ice front-month October Brent contract was at $90.02/bl at 04:00 GMT, up by $1.11/bl from its settlement on 11 August when it ended $1.19/bl higher.
The Nymex front-month September crude contract was at $84.31/bl, up by $1.11/bl from its settlement on 11 August when it ended $1.07/bl higher.
Supply disruptions in the Middle East may last through 2027, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on 11 August as it raised its price forecasts.
WTI at Cushing, Oklahoma is expected to average $74/bl across October-December, the agency said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, up from $66/bl in its July forecast. Prices will steadily fall over the coming 15 months to $60.97/bl in the fourth quarter of 2027 as global inventories start to rebuild, but that forecast is still higher than previously projected.
WTI will average $80.88/bl across 2026 and $65.39/bl across 2027, representing increases of about $4.62/bl from the EIA's prior forecast. Global benchmark Brent was also revised. Prices were expected to average $78/bl in the fourth quarter 2026 before sliding to near $65/bl a year later.
Lifting the price outlook are continued disruptions in the Middle East on account of Iran's grip on the strait of Hormuz, which the EIA estimates shut in 5.5mn b/d in July.
The EIA is holding to its view that output will return to near pre-conflict levels "early" next year but expects ongoing supply disruptions of about 600,000 b/d to persist until the end of 2027.
Iran and Oman were this week still working towards an agreement on overseeing ship traffic through the strait of Hormuz, which could include the collection of fees. Tehran has demanded additional concessions from the US for the reopening of the narrow waterway, the date of which remains elusive.
Vessel traffic through the strait of Hormuz remained low on 10 August. And two shipping incidents occurred in or near Middle East waters on 11 August, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations.
"The strait of Hormuz will not reopen until the US ends the war and blockade, releases Iran's frozen assets, and agrees to a region-wide ceasefire, including in Lebanon and Gaza," secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Mohsen Rezaei said in remarks carried by IRGC-affiliated Tasnim. "Until all conditions are met, the strait will remain closed."
Meanwhile, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on social media platform X that the seven-day average for oil leaving the strait of Hormuz is currently up to almost 9mn b/d "thanks to the co-ordinated efforts of the US military and our Gulf allies".
By Reena Nathan