Early Morning Kommentar
Asia midday crude futures: Ice Brent rises

9 December (Argus) — Ice Brent crude futures rose in early Asian trading, because of heightened tensions in the Middle East after rebel forces toppled the Syrian government.

At 04:00 GMT, the Ice front-month February Brent contract was at $71.40/bl, up by 28¢/bl from its settlement on 6 December when the contract ended 97¢/bl lower.

The Nymex front-month January crude contract was at $67.49/bl, up by 29¢/bl from its settlement on 6 December when the contract ended $1.10/bl lower.

The 53-year rule of the Assad family in Syria appears to have ended, after opposition military forces closed in on the capital Damascus and the country's prime minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali said his government is ready to hand over power. He did not address reports that Syrian president Bashar al-Assad had left the country.

The apparent fall from power of the al-Assad regime — Iran's top Arab ally — came after opposition forces launched a sudden military offensive in late November, seizing some of the country's biggest cities over the last week before reportedly entering the capital on 8 December.

Uncertainty over who would take over leadership of Syria is likely to lead to continued tensions in the country and the wider Middle East region. The tensions appear to have offset worries about weak oil demand, reflected in state-controlled Saudi Aramco's cuts to official formula prices of its January crude exports for most of its customers.

Aramco's price cuts follow a decision by Opec+ producers last week to delay a plan to start increasing crude output by another three months to April 2025. The delay is designed "to support market stability", the Opec secretariat said, in reference to unfavourable market conditions — specifically slow oil demand growth this year and next.

On the supply side, the number of oil and gas rigs in the US rose, capping oil price gains. The tally of oil rigs rose by five to 482 in the week ended 6 December, while natural gas rigs added two to 102, according to Baker Hughes data. The number of miscellaneous rigs held steady at five.