Early Morning Kommentar
Oil futures: WTI down 3pc on possible US-Iran progress

WTI crude futures fell by about 3pc so far this week after US president Donald Trump claimed progress in reaching a peace deal with Iran, but concerns have since been raised after fresh strikes by the US.

July Nymex WTI settled at $93.89/bl on Tuesday, lower by $2.71/bl from its settlement 22 May. There was no Nymex settlement on 25 May because of a federal holiday in the US.

July Ice Brent settled at $99.58/bl for a gain of $3.44/bl from the 25 May session but that is still lower by $3.96/bl from 22 May.

The July Brent-July WTI spread came in at $5.69/bl, narrowed by $1.25/bl compared to 22 May.

WTI at the Magellan East Houston terminal was discussed at a prompt $1.30-1.40/bl premium bid-ask spread to the Cushing benchmark at 3pm ET, according to the Argus Crude Market Ticker.

Trump over the weekend said an agreement with Iran to reopen the strait of Hormuz has been "largely negotiated" but noted he has instructed his representatives "not to rush into a deal".

Just one day after raising expectations that a US deal with Iran was imminent, Trump, in a social media post on Sunday, said that negotiations are "proceeding in an orderly and constructive manner" but that "both sides must take their time and get it right. There can be no mistakes!"

But fighting continues with US forces conducting what they called "self-defence" strikes in Iran on Monday, according to US media reports citing US Central Command spokesman Tim Hawkins. Targets included missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to place mines, Hawkins said.

There has been no confirmation from Iran. "The situation in Bandar Abbas is calm and normal," according to Tasnim news agency, which is affiliated with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The Greek-operated VLCC Nissos Keros has passed through the strait of Hormuz over the weekend carrying UAE crude from Das Island and is on route for India, making it the first supertanker with a cargo from the UAE to exit the region since the start of the war. The tanker is owned by Arethusa Shipping in the Marshall Islands but is operated by Greece's Kyklades Maritime and Okeanis Tankers. It is sailing for Visakhapatnam, India, ship tracking data show. The tanker is carrying around 1.8mn bl of Das crude from Das Island, loaded on 3 March and has been in the Mideast Gulf since the outbreak of the war.

Elsewhere, rising crude prices prompted India to dial back refinery throughputs in April while Japan says its oil supplies can last beyond March 2027.

Nymex RBOB fell by 23.34¢/USG to $3.2205/USG while Nymex ultra-low sulphur diesel fell by 17.32¢/USG to $3.7146/USG.

By Brett Holmes