Early Morning Kommentar
Asia midday crude futures: Ice Brent edges up

14 July (Argus) — Ice Brent crude futures inched up in early Asian trading hours following concerns of crude flow disruptions due to US tariffs.

At 04:00 GMT, the Ice front-month September Brent contract was at $70.51/bl, higher by 15¢/bl from its settlement on 11 July when the contract ended $1.72/bl higher.

The Nymex front-month August crude contract was at $68.59/bl, higher by 14¢/bl from its settlement on 11 July when the contract ended $1.88/bl higher.

US president Donald Trump on 12 July said the US will impose 30pc tariffs on goods imported from Mexico and the EU beginning on 1 August.

In a move that could significantly disrupt crude, refined product and other commodity flows, Trump made public on his social media platform letters sent to Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen on 11 July threatening the new tariffs.

Trump also vowed to raise the tariffs even higher if Mexico or the EU were to retaliate with their own measures.

Canadian prime minister Mark Carney reiterated his plan to diversify trade with countries "throughout the world" following another round of tariff threats, and another deadline, from Trump.

Carney's comments on social media late on 10 July came hours after Trump said Canada could expect a 35pc tariff on all imports, effective 1 August.

On supply, Saudi Arabia drove a substantial increase in Opec+ production last month in a bid to mitigate potential supply disruptions stemming from the 12-day Israel-Iran war.

Opec+ crude production rose by 830,000 b/d to 35.1mn b/d in June, according to Argus estimates, 290,000 b/d above its collective target for the month. Saudi Arabia accounted for most of this, boosting output by 600,000 b/d to 9.75mn b/d — 380,000 b/d above its required production of 9.37mn b/d for the month, as published by the Opec secretariat.

Saudi production is normally in line with its Opec+ targets. But fears that the Israel-Iran conflict could cause regional production shutdowns and disrupt exports through the strait of Hormuz prompted Saudi Arabia to substantially increase output as a contingency measure, sources familiar with the matter told Argus.

The US drilling rig count fell by two in the week ended 11 July to 537, remaining at the lowest since October 2021, according to Baker Hughes data. The tally of oil rigs slipped by one to 424 in the week ended 11 July, while natural gas rigs were flat at 108. Miscellaneous rigs fell by one to five.