Early Morning Kommentar
Asia midday crude futures: Ice Brent rises

Ice Brent futures posted gains in early Asian trading hours, given that crude exports remained constrained by war in the Middle East.

The Ice front-month June Brent contract was at $106.06/bl at 04:00 GMT, up by 99¢/bl from its settlement on 23 April when it ended $3.16/bl higher.

The Nymex front-month June crude contract was at $96.58/bl, higher by 73¢/bl from its settlement on 23 April when it ended $2.89/bl higher.

Israel will suspend military operations in Lebanon for another three weeks beyond the existing ceasefire deadline of 26 April, US president Donald Trump said on 23 April following talks between Israeli and Lebanese envoys at the White House. The ceasefire negotiated a week ago was due to expire on 26 April, so a three-week extension will push it until 17 May.

But prospects for a US-Iran agreement look more remote now than they did a week ago. The strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to navigation, and the US naval blockade of Iranian trade continues despite a ceasefire that Trump said on 21 April will continue indefinitely. There is no date set for the next round of US-Iran talks.

US forces have boarded a very large crude carrier (VLCC) carrying Iranian oil in the Indian Ocean as part of Washington's ongoing blockade of ships entering or exiting Iranian ports.

"Overnight, US forces carried out a maritime interdiction and right-of-visit boarding of the sanctioned stateless vessel M/T Majestic X transporting oil from Iran," the country's defense department said on 23 April in a post on social media platform X.

Other crude tankers intercepted during the US blockade include the VLCCs Diona and Tifani. The US Navy also seized the Iranian-flagged container ship Touska on 19 April while it was en route to Bandar Abbas in Iran.

The EU has formally adopted its 20th sanctions package against Russia, adding 46 vessels to its shadow fleet list and setting the legal basis for a future ban on maritime services linked to Russian crude and oil product shipments.

Crude loadings at Russian Baltic and Black Sea ports remain lower than normal in the wake of recent Ukrainian drone attacks.

Exports from the three key terminals — Primorsk and Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea and Novorossiysk on the Black Sea — are just under 2mn b/d so far in April, around 15pc lower than in the same period last month, data from port reports and trade analytics platform Vortexa show.