Early Morning Kommentar
– Asia midday crude futures: Ice Brent falls

Ice Brent crude futures retreated in early Asian trading today given that expectations of additional crude availability outweighed concerns about renewed attacks on shipping in the strait of Hormuz.

The Ice front-month December Brent contract was at $104.30/bl at 04:00 GMT, down by $1.76/bl from its settlement on 14 October when it ended 37¢/bl higher.

The Nymex front-month November crude contract was at $94.06/bl, lower by $1.03/bl from its settlement on 14 October when it ended 95¢/bl higher.

Around 96mn bl of oil is yet to be released from stocks under an agreement made by IEA members in March, the agency said on 14 October.

In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), the IEA said its members had released 331mn bl of oil by the end of September, with 46mn bl still to be released in Europe, 40mn bl in the Americas and 10mn bl in Asia-Pacific. It did not provide a crude-to-products breakdown.

The IEA has increased its projection for 2026 global crude runs in its latest OMR, despite predicting European crude run cuts in the fourth quarter.

The October OMR forecasts 2026 global crude throughput to fall by 2.3mn b/d on the year to 81.7mn b/d. This is 200,000 b/d higher than predicted in the September report.

Russia's domestic fuel market is rebalancing after several refineries returned from maintenance, deputy prime minister Alexander Novak said according to state-owned news agency Tass.

"A number of plants have returned to work after repairs, and today the situation is significantly better than a month ago, than two weeks ago," Novak said on 14 October, adding that some of this is because of greater protection for facilities in the face of Ukraine's drone campaign.

Ukraine's drones hit Rosneft's 340,000 b/d Ryazan and 140,000 b/d Saratov refineries on 14 October, Russian deputy prime minister Alexander Novak said, speaking on the sidelines of the Russian Energy Week in Moscow.

China's crude import recovery all-but ground to a halt in September, as Mideast Gulf supplies tightened again.

China imported 9.03mn b/d of crude last month, up by just 1pc from 8.93mn b/d in August and down by 21pc from 11.45mn b/d a year earlier, preliminary customs data released on 14 October show.

A sharp rise in vessel attacks in the Mideast Gulf has yet to discourage Chinese buyers, who are continuing to load up on prompt crude from the region. Deeper discounts on Middle Eastern spot cargoes are enticing Chinese importers at the expense of costlier but safer alternatives such as Atlantic Basin supplies.

At least four vessels were attacked in the strait of Hormuz on 13 October, including one containership that sunk, as Iran escalates attacks on shipping around the waterway.

The OMR cited improved expectations for the return of Middle East refining and a rebound in Chinese run rates.