Early Morning Kommentar
Asia midday crude futures: Ice Brent eases

Ice Brent futures eased in early Asian trading but remained above $106/bl, as US-Iran peace negotiations showed little progress and the market's close watch on the Trump-Xi summit.

The Ice front-month July Brent contract was at $106.60/bl at 04:00 GMT, down by $1.17/bl from its settlement on 12 May when it ended $3.56/bl higher.

The Nymex front-month June crude contract was at $101.06/bl, lower by $1.12/bl from its settlement on 12 May when it ended $4.11/bl higher.

US president Donald Trump's visit to Beijing on 14-15 May will feature announcements regarding new sales deals and creation of a special panel to monitor their implementation. But a "grand bargain" to resolve all outstanding issues between the US and China remains elusive.

Meanwhile, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said on 12 May that it has widened its definition of the strait of Hormuz into a "vast operational area", extending it from the coast of Jask to Siri Island.

The move broadens the area the IRGC says falls under its Hormuz operations beyond the narrow strait itself, through which around a fifth of global oil supply transited before the US-Iran war began.

Traffic through the strait of Hormuz is broadly at the low levels seen during the war. At least six vessels crossed the strait with AIS tracking turned on 12 May, including three heading west into the Mideast Gulf, according to MarineTraffic.

Republican and Democratic senators at a hearing on 12 May asked senior US military officials to lay out options for reopening navigation through the strait of Hormuz that has been controlled by Iran since early March.

Defense secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman, General Dan Caine, said that even though Trump could order Hormuz to be reopened by military means they expect the combination of a US naval blockade and new sanctions against Iran to force Tehran to back down.

US crude supply and demand will both be higher in 2026 than previously thought, contrary to the global picture, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on 12 May.

Domestic oil production is expected to average at 13.65mn b/d this year, the agency said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), up by 140,000 b/d from its April forecast. Output for 2027 was revised higher by a similar amount and is now estimated at 14.1mn b/d — the EIA's first annual estimate above the 14mn b/d mark.