Early Morning Kommentar
Asia midday crude futures: Ice Brent moves up

Ice Brent futures increased in early Asian trading on reports of fresh US strikes on Iran and retaliatory action by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The Ice front-month July Brent contract was at $97.98/bl at 04:00 GMT, up by $3.69/bl from its settlement on 27 May when it ended $5.29/bl lower.

The Nymex front-month July crude contract was at $92.28/bl, up by $3.60/bl from its settlement on 27 May when it ended $5.21/bl lower.

The IRGC has retaliated against fresh US strikes, Iran's Tasnim news agency, which is linked to the IRGC, said on 28 May. The IRGC announced that it targeted a US airbase following an early morning airstrike by the US army near Bandar Abbas airport, according to Tasnim.

Kuwaiti air defences are responding to hostile missile and drone threats, the Kuwait army said on 28 May, adding that any explosions that may be heard are the result of air defence systems intercepting hostile targets.

The fresh strikes have dampened market hopes of the US and Iran nearing a resolution that could reopen the strait of Hormuz. The US and Iran were previously mulling a draft agreement that could reopen the critical waterway.

A draft agreement to end the war between the US and Iran included a pledge to restore the number of commercial ships transiting the strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels within a month, Iranian state television reported on 27 May. But US president Donald Trump later on the same day pushed back against Tehran's assertion of control over Hormuz and other Iranian demands, including immediate relief of US sanctions and repatriation of Iranian funds.

"The strait [of Hormuz] is going to be open to everybody," Trump said in televised remarks at a Cabinet meeting. "We'll watch over it, but nobody's going to control it. That's part of the negotiation that we have. They would like to control it, nobody's going to control it."

Meanwhile, Trump's administration is preparing to roll out new tariffs targeting imports from major trading partners and is looking for ways to force changes in the existing US-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement (USMCA).

The process in some ways is similar to the trade conflicts Trump launched last year, but his administration is choosing a smaller set of US trading partners to pick fights with. The US is likely to take a less adversarial approach toward Mexico and China, as well as countries that negotiated trade agreements with the US last year, according to US trade representative Jamieson Greer. But US trade relations with Canada are promising to remain problematic.

Greer's agency, the US Trade Representative's office (USTR), on 27 May announced the formal launch of talks with Mexico to review and possibly revise the USMCA. USTR plans to hold similar talks with Canada, but they are likely to be more contentious than the US-Mexico consultations, according to Greer.

"Two countries in the world retaliate against us, People's Republic of China and Canada," Greer said on 26 May. Most US trading partners grudgingly accepted US demands to rebalance trade but "Canada's approach has been different," Greer said at a discussion hosted by Washington-based Council on Foreign Relations.